中国宏观经济波动研究——基于MSV解下的新凯恩斯模型

Research on China's Macroeconomic Fluctuations:Based on the New Keynesian Model under the MSV Solution

宏观经济波动的冲击来源及其传导机制一直是宏观经济学的研究热点。在评析学界有关经济周期研究方法的基础上重新构建新凯恩斯模型,在MSV解下同时考虑总供给、总需求和货币政策三类冲击对中国宏观经济波动的影响。研究结果表明:中国的宏观经济有确定性均衡,中央银行对经济增长的重视程度高于物价稳定,总供给冲击对通胀和产出缺口的作用方向相反,总需求冲击和货币政策冲击对通胀和产出缺口的作用方向相同,总供给冲击没有持续性影响,总需求冲击有长期持续性影响,货币政策冲击有短期持续性影响,通胀波动主要来源于总供给冲击,产出缺口波动主要来源于货币政策冲击,名义利率波动主要来源于总需求冲击。

The sources and transmission mechanisms of shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations have always been one of research hot pots in macroeconomics.Based on the review of the methodology about business cy- cle,a new Keynesian model is rebuilt to examine the impacts of the three shocks of aggregate supply,aggregate demand and monetary policy on China's macroeconomic fluctuations under the MSV solution.It is found that China's macro economy has a determinate equilibrium.The central bank attaches more importance to economic growth than to price stability.The inflation and output gap move in opposite direction upon the shock of aggregate supply and in the same direction upon the shock of aggregate demand and monetary policy.The shock of aggregate supply has no persistent impact;the shock of aggregate demand has long-term persistent impact,while the shock of monetary policy has short-term persistent impact.The main source of inflation fluctuation is the shock of aggregate supply,and the main source of output gap fluctuation and nominal interest rate fluctuation is respectively the shock of monetary policy and the shock of aggregate demand.