基于网络分析法的海洋生态承载力评价及贡献因素研究

Carrying capacity evaluation and contribution factor research for marine ecology based on analytic network process

基于网络分析原理构建了能够处理指标之间存在关联影响关系的海洋生态承载力评价方法,并对我国沿海11省(区、市)在2006～2014年的海洋生态承载力指数和贡献因素进行了评价和分析。结果表明:沿海地区人口数量、地区海洋生产总值、海洋水产品产量、近岸海域一二类海水水质占比、直排海污染物排放量是对海洋生态承载力指数具有重要影响的指标;按承载力指数分布,广东、山东、浙江为高承载地区,福建、辽宁、上海为中承载地区,江苏、天津、河北、广西、海南为低承载地区,各类地区的海洋生态承载力指数近年总体上保持平稳发展趋势;按贡献因素分布,广东、广西、河北、江苏、辽宁、山东、浙江为社会压力主导型,上海、天津为生态本底主导型,海南为科技支撑主导型,福建为资源供给主导型。

The carrying capacity evaluation method for marine ecology which can deal with the relationship among indices is constructed based on analytic network process,and it is employed to compute carrying capacity index of marine ecology and analyze contribution factors for China’s eleven coastal provinces (region,city) during 2006-2014. The results show that the key indicators which have important influences on marine ecological carrying capacity are regional population size,regional marine GDP,marine aquatic production,ratio of the first two sea water quality levels,and pollutant discharge level directly discharging into the sea. According to the distribution of carrying capacity index,Guangdong,Shandong,Zhejiang are high carrying capacity regions; Fujian,Liaoning,Shanghai are middle carrying capacity regions; Jiangsu,Tianjin,Hebei,Guangxi,Hainan are low carrying capacity regions. According to the distribution of contribution factors,Guangdong,Guangxi,Hebei,Jiangsu,Liaoning,Shandong,Zhejiang belong to the type of social pressure orientation; Shanghai and Tianjin belong to the type of ecological background orientation; Hainan belongs to the type of scientific and technological supporting orientation; Fujian belongs to the type of resource supplying orientation.