基于情景分析法的煤电行业碳排放峰值预测

PREDICTION OF CARBON EMISSION PEAK IN COAL-FIRED POWER INDUSTRY BASED ON SCENARIO ANALYSIS

将国内生产总值(GDP)和人口总数作为电力消费的两大重要影响因素,建立自回归移动平均模型对我国GDP进行预测,运用队列要素法建立实施"全面二孩"政策下的人口模型,并对我国人口总数进行了预测。同时,建立多元线性回归模型对我国未来电力消费进行预测,运用情景分析法探索煤电行业2018—2030年CO_2排放量,分析CO_2排放量与燃煤发电比重、CO_2排放强度之间的关系。研究表明:燃煤发电占比是影响我国煤电行业CO_2排放量的决定性因素,但改变CO_2排放强度对煤电行业CO_2排放峰值的到来时间几乎无影响。

GDP and population size are considered as two important factors of power consumption. Therefore, an ARMA model was established to forecast GDP of China, and a population model under the universal two-child policy was established by cohort-component method to forecast total population of China. Meanwhile, a multiple linear regression model was established to forecast the future power consumption in China, and CO2 emissions of coal-fired power industry in 2018 to 2030 were forecasted and the relationship between CO2 emissions and proportion of coal-fired power generation and CO2 emissions intensity were analyzed by scenario method. The results of the study showed that the proportion of coal-fired power generation was the decisive factor affecting the CO2 emissions of coal-fired power industry in China, but the change of CO2 emissions intensity had little effect on the arrival time point of the CO2 emissions peak in the coal-fired power industry.