我国GDP形成中供给和需求因素作用的比较分析

A Comparison between the Supply and Demand Factors in the Formation of Our GDP

实际GDP的形成是社会累积供给和累积需求平衡后实现的 ,是累积供给因素和累积需求因素短边效果的体现。我们选取工业生产增加值代表经济的供给成分 ,选取社会消费品零售总额代表经济的消费需求成分 ,比较它们同实际GDP之间的长期均衡关系和短期波动模式。通过使用协整检验和误差修正模型 ,我们发现 ,从供给和需求角度度量实际GDP ,它们具有类似的长期趋势 ,但它们在短期波动模式上却存在显著差别 ,这表明我国当前经济运行当中消费需求驱动成分更为显著 ,体现了买方市场的基本特征和一定程度的需求不足。

The formation of real GDP, realized at the equilibrium between the cumulative social supply and demand, is the presentation of the short-sided effect of the two factors. In this paper, a comparison is made in their long-term equilibrium relation and short-term fluctuation model between real GDP and the two factors: economic supply and consumption demand. The former is represented by what is selected the industrial added value while the latter by the total volume of retail sales of social consumer goods. Through coordinated examination and error-correction, it is found that measuring real GDP from the angle of supply-demand, they have similar long trends while there is a sharp difference between them in the short-term fluctuation model. This shows consumption demand as the more remarkable driving force in our current economic operation, thus representing the basic characteristic of buyer's market and a certain level of demand shortage.