摘要
本文通过对 1 994～ 2 0 0 1上半年度经济指标和股价指数进行实证检验 ,发现我国证券市场股价走势能够反映经济现状及未来走势 ,具备经济“晴雨表”的功能 ;按照该结论对 2 0 0 1年 7月以来的股价下跌现象进行了规范分析 ,认为此次股价下跌是宏观经济走势不强、工业增速回落的客观反映 ,是对未来经济走势有可能恶化的警示 ,建议考虑适当调整宏观财政金融政策 ,防止经济下滑。另外 ,对市场违规行为查处和国有股减持对市场的影响也进行了初步分析 ,以澄清一些模糊认识 ,避免对经济调控产生误导作用。
Through positivist investigation into the economic indicator and the stock price index in the period of Jan., 1994--June, 2001, the paper finds that our stock price trend can function as an economic 'barometer', reflecting the present state and the future running of our economy. The author of the paper makes a standardized analysis on the continued inclination of China's stock price since July, 2001, which is thought to be an objective reflection of the weak macroeconomic trend and the fall of the industrial growth after a rise, and a warning sign to a possible economic worsening, and, then, suggests that the macro-financial policies be properly adjusted to prevent the economic downturn. In addition, the paper makes a primary analysis on the prosecution of illegal market performances and the effect on stock market of selling off government shares in enterprises, so as to make clear some confused ideas and avoid misleading the economic control.
出处
《当代经济科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2002年第2期68-72,共5页
Modern Economic Science
基金
国家社会科学基金资助项目 (0 1BJY0 89)
