旅游景区安全事故灰色预测及关联度分析

Analysis and grey prediction for the correlation degrees of the tourism scenic spots safety accidents

安全是旅游活动的前提和基础,旅游景区安全事故是旅游业主要的安全事故之一。首先,为了研究旅游景区安全事故的发生机理、事故特征及未来发生事故的趋势,收集了国内近几年旅游景区安全事故的样本,从人的不安全行为、机器的不安全状态、周边环境及管理4个方面分析导致旅游景区安全事故的原因,建立旅游安全事故因果连锁改进模型,并找出旅游景区安全事故的事故链及关联关系。其次,基于灰色预测理论方法,建立旅游事故灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,引入四阶弱化算子,得到动态预测模型,用最小二乘法得到预测时间响应函数。再次,对原始数据序列进行无量纲处理,以曲线间的差值作为关联程度的衡量尺度来建立关联度系数和关联度模型。最后,针对某区旅游景区安全事故,通过灰色预测方法和关联度综合分析进行研究,用GM(1,1)模型进行预测,结果表明,在旅游事故的综合关联度中,重伤事故最大,是优势母因素;违反景区旅游纪律是优势子因素,旅游景区管理者违章指挥次数与重伤事故的关联度最大,应强化责任,加强旅游纪律管理,进行科学合理的指挥。研究表明,人和机要素是核心要素,预防事故的发生,主要是预防游客的不安全行为、防止物的不安全状态。

This paper is concerned about the safety and ways on how to avoid the tourist risks and guarantee the safety of the tourists and tourist activities by taking some scenic spots as a case study sample.For this purpose,the author has first of all collected some tourism safety accidents in recent years and made a statistical analysis,and then tried to clarify the causes of such accidents from the aspect of unsafe behaviors of the tourists themselves,the unsafe status-in-situ of the installations and equipment,the environment and the management so as to disclose the background mechanism,the accident specific features and the general trends.Furthermore,we have also summarized and built up an improved model of the cause-effect chain concerning the tourist safety accidents.From the above studies,we have found that the accident chain of the safety accidents and the correlation rate between them in such scenic spots.And,next,based on the grey correlation theory and the forecasting likeliness,we have constructed a grey forecast model of GM(1,1),and,then,gained the dynamic prediction model by the 4-th Order Weakening Factors to set up a time response function by the least square formula.More literally speaking,we have established the relational coefficient and relational model by taking the difference of the curves as the scale of correlation degree based on the dimensionless processing of the original data sequence.Finally,we have made a forecast of the developmental trend of the tourist accidents via the GM(1,1) model and worked out the accident correlation comprehensively in a grey prediction method and correlation rates through searching the safety accidents of a certain number of tourist spots.In accordance with our findings,the serious injury accidents can serve as the dominant parent factor in the comprehensive correlation degree,whereas the violation of the tourist rules or disciplines in the scenic spots can be taken as the lesson of the dominant sub-factors.Furthermore,violation of the tourism guides and directions in the given scenic spots are probably the most related to the serious injury accidents.Thus,it should be pointed out that the sense of responsibility and the stress of the tourist discipline should be strengthened,and the scientific and reasonable tourist guides should be further emphasized.By emphasizing the human and installation elements as the key elements,it would be possible to cut off and prevent from such tourist accidents to the minimal extent.