基于改进CREAM扩展法的管制人员人因可靠性分析

Human reliability analysis of the air traffic controllers based on the development method of CREAM

为有效评估管制人员在空中交通指挥过程中的可靠性,减少因管制员人为失误而造成的飞行事故,结合空中交通指挥的独特性确定了管制人员指挥事件序列,改进认知可靠性与失误分析方法(CREAM)扩展法,使其认知行为及其所对应的认知功能更符合管制工作的本质;又类比人员失误概率的共同绩效条件(CPC),并在此基础上新增了9个管制员自身的内在因素(HIF);然后对华东某空管局100位经验丰富的管制员进行问卷调查,确定出每个事件最可能的失效模式;最后确定CPC和HIF所对应水平的认知功能权重,计算得到管制人员指挥过程的人因失效概率。结果表明,由建立的人因可靠性评估流程所得的失效概率与某空管局的管制实际运行相吻合,并针对失误概率较高的部分提出建议。

The given paper is intended to assess the reliability of the air traffic controllers effectively in the flying process and reduce the air-flight accidents likely to be caused by the human errors of the controllers.To achieve the goal of the air flight safety,it is first of all necessary to take into account the particular details of the ATCO control process so as to identify and determine the consequential events in the air traffic control,which may include the following 4 commanding factors,that is,heightening and improvement of the cognitive reliability of the air traffic controllers and their error identification and selection of proper methods.And,secondly,it is of great importance to help them to identify the cognitive behaviors of each event and its corresponding cognitive functions along with enhancing the cognitive reliability and error analysis method(short for CREAM).And,thirdly,the paper also aims to make an analogy to the common performance factors of the human error probabilities,with the newly added 9 human internal factors(HIF) of ATCOs,which can be chosen with the highest regard in the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP).And,last of all,the cognitive function weights corresponding to the CPC and HIF should be trained so that the currently existing failure model equations can be used to work out the revised CFP and eventually assess the failure probabilities of ATCOs in the control process.Therefore,to satisfy the said necessity,the total failure probability can be worked out in the controller's.