面向联合作战评估的兵棋推演实验研究

Wargaming Experiment Oriented Evaluation of Joint Operations

针对传统评估方法在联合作战评估中存在的缺乏动态对抗、易受人为因素影响等问题,提出一种基于兵棋推演实验的解决方案.在分析兵棋推演实验总体框架的基础上,根据评估需求有针对性地设计兵棋推演实验流程与步骤.在对兵棋推演实验数据进行分析时,从时间、空间两个维度上对评估问题进行综合,并提出采用包围规则判定算法来处理不确定实验结果.实验案例表明,利用兵棋推演实验能够有效获取部分联合作战问题的评估结果.

For the problems of loss of dynamic confrontation and influence of human factors based on traditional evaluation methods,a solution based on wargaming experiment is proposed.The framework of wargaming experiment is analyzed,and procedure and steps of wargaming experiment are designed according to evaluation requirement.When analyzing experimental data of wargaming,the evaluation problems are integrated from the two dimensions of time and space,and uncertain experimental results are processed by surround rules decision algorithm.The experimental cases show that evaluation results of some problems of joint operations can be achieved from wargaming experiments.