中期选举后特朗普政府内外政策走向

Donald Trump Administration's Domestic and Foreign Policy after the Midterm Elections

2018年美国中期选举后,民主党时隔8年重新占据国会众议院多数,这对美国政治生态和特朗普政府的内外政策将产生重要影响。特朗普政府将坚持"美国优先"的议程,但将受到国会更多的监督和制衡。其"二次减税"和移民政策将遇到很大阻力,扩大基础设施建设的政策也不会顺利,而在打击毒品方面则能够获得较多的支持。外交领域,美国对外贸易谈判会被注入环保、劳工标准等更多民主党重视的内容,其"印太"战略的推进和其他地区战略不会受到太大影响,而持续僵持的美俄关系和信任受损的美欧关系则难以出现明显变化。中美元首在布宜诺斯艾利斯的会晤对稳定双边关系意义重大,但在美国将中国明确列为竞争对手并实施竞争战略的背景下,即使中美经贸谈判取得进展,双方在高科技和社会文化领域的摩擦也会增多,在台湾、南海、人权等传统问题上的博弈也可能趋于激烈。

US Democratic Party recaptured control of the House after the 2018 Midterm elections,which have important implications on American political ecology,domestic and foreign policies.President Trump,increasingly supervised and checked by the Congress,will face pressures and difficulties in pushing forward Tax Cuts 2.0,infrastructure plan and immigration policies.At the same time,the US new trade deal with Mexico and Canada and the trade negotiations with EU and other countries will face more uncertainties,since the Democratic Party will pay more attention to labor and environment standards.Other regional strategies like‘Indo-Pacific Strategy’and US relations with Russia and Europe would basically maintain the current trend.Even if the Sino-US trade negotiations make progress,the frictions on high technology,social and cultural exchanges will increase,and the disputes on issues like Taiwan,the South China Sea and human rights may become more visible.