我国城镇居民代际收入流动性分析——兼论同住偏误对其的影响

Study on Intergenerational Income Mobility in Urban China and the Influence of Co-Residence Selection Bias on It

本文基于CHIP2013年的城镇住户数据,估计我国城镇居民子代(所有子女、同住子女、不同住子女)收入对父代收入的弹性。基本回归分析表明:(1)所有子女样本的弹性系数值约为0.34,我国城镇居民代际收入流动性不强,存在一定的阶层固化现象;(2)异质性分析表明,父代收入对不同住子女收入的影响不大,相应的弹性值约为0.21;父代收入对同住子女收入的影响很大,相应的弹性值约为0.40。因此,如果仅仅使用同住子女数据样本来估计收入弹性,会低估代际收入流动程度。此外,代际收入转换矩阵分析表明,我国城镇居民低收入阶层和高收入阶层的代际收入阶层流动性较低,并且同住子女的代际收入阶层流动性显著弱于不同住子女。

Based on the urban household data of CHIP2013,this paper estimates the elasticity of the income of the urban residents' children (all children,cohabiting children and children living in different residence)in China to the income of their fathers.The basic regression analysis shows that the elastic coefficient value of all children samples is about 0.34.The intergenerational income mobility of urban residents in China is not strong, and there is a certain class solidification phenomenon.The heterogeneity analysis shows that the parental income had little influence on the income of children living in different houses,and the corresponding elastic coefficient was about 0.21.The parent income has a great influence on the income of the children living with him,and the corresponding elastic coefficient is about 0.40.Therefore,the degree of intergenerational income mobility can be underestimated if the income elasticity is estimated using only a sample of cohabit children.Our additional studies on income transfer matrix also demonstrate a low social mobility in urban China,and the intergenerational income mobility of the children living together was significantly lower than that of the children living apart.