基于VAR的中国煤炭消费量与经济发展关系研究

Research on the Relationship between China's Coal Consumption and Economic Development Based on VAR

选取我国1991—2015年的数据,从煤炭消费的供给侧和需求侧两方面入手构建模型,利用传统的VAR模型以及Granger因果检验,研究我国煤炭消费量与经济发展之间的关系。研究结果表明:经济增长对人均煤炭消费量有单向的Granger因果关系,因此,研究煤炭的消费与我国经济增长之间的关系,对于保证我国经济增长、实现以最少的煤炭消费支持经济的可持续发展均具有重要意义。

From the supply side and demand side of coal consumption,the model was built based on 'the data from 1991to 2015,using the traditional VAR model and Granger causality test,the relationship between China's coal consumption and economic development was studied.The results show that economic growth has a one-way Granger causality on per capita coal consumption.Therefore,studying the relationship between coal consumption and China's economic growth can guarantee China's economic growth and achieve sustainable economic development with minimum coal consumption.