“九合一”选举及其对台湾政党政治的影响

“Nine-in-One” Elections and Its Impact on Party Politics in Taiwan

论文分析2018年台湾"九合一"选举的结果、原因及其对岛内政党政治的影响。国民党此次在县市长、县市议员、乡镇长、乡镇市民代表和村里长选举中的得票率和席次分配均明显领先民进党。两党以外的第三势力唯有柯文哲当选台北市长,但在县市议员以下层次的选举中则有所长进。选举结果反映了台湾民众对民进党执政状况的强烈不满,特别是中间选民在"韩流"和网络媒体的催化下,出现了大规模的板块挪动。这次选举将在很大程度上影响到2020年台湾地区领导人和立法机构的"二合一"选举结果,增加台湾政党再次轮替的可能性。

This paper analyzes the outcome,roots and impact of Taiwan's "Nine-in-One"elections during November 2018.Because of the poor performance of the DPP administration,the opposition Chinese Nationalist Party (Kuomintang,KMT)has significantly overtaken the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)in both vote and seat shares in elections for Taiwan's city and county executives and councilors, township chiefs and representatives,and village and neighborhood chiefs.Meanwhile,nonpartisan politician Ko Wen-jen maintains Taipei mayoralty and other nonpartisan figures have gained more seats at the city and county councilor level or below.Stimulated by social media in general and the Han Kuo-yu phenomenon in particular,median voters have greatly shifted their support from the DPP to the KNIT,resulting in the ruling party's electoral fiasco.This outcome has projected a shadow on the outcome of the forthcoming leadership and legislature elections on the island scheduled for January 2020,suggesting a likely power turnover again between the two main parties in Taiwan.