云物元模型在液化天然气终端港址比选中的应用

Application of cloud matter element model in liquefied natural gas terminal site selection

鉴于液化天然气(LNG)终端港址综合评估中考察因素复杂、广泛及以往过于依赖人为主观因素的原因,采用模型耦合方式,构建基于云物元理论和主客观综合赋权法的LNG终端港址综合评估模型.通过主客观综合赋权法确定各指标综合权重,结合云模型和物元理论构建LNG终端港址综合评估标准云物元模型,并借助云物元关联函数确定待评物元与标准云物元模型之间的关联度.为消除随机误差,提高结果可信度,利用算法多次计算和分析,使结果可同时给出评估结果和可信度.实例分析进一步验证了该模型在终端港址比选中的优势与可靠性,为今后LNG终端港址比选工作提供了参考.

In view of the complex and extensive factors in the comprehensive evaluation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal sites and the over-reliance on subjective factors in the past, a comprehensive LNG terminal port site evaluation model based on cloud matter element theory, subjective and objective comprehensive weighting method with model-coupling was established. By the subjective and objective comprehensive weighting method, the comprehensive weight of each index was determined and the LNG terminal comprehensive assessment standard cloud element model was constructed by combination of cloud model and matter element theory. The cloud matter element correlation function was established to determine the degree of association between the matter element to be evaluated and the standard cloud matter element model. In order to eliminate random errors and improve the credibility of the results, the algorithm was used for multiple calculations and analysis to achieve the purpose of simultaneously giving the evaluation results and coefficients of credible degree. Example analysis further verifies the superiority and reliability of the proposed model in the selection of the terminal port site, which provides a reference for LNG port site selection in the future.