气候变化对民和县冬小麦的影响分析

Effects of Climate Change on Winter Wheat in Minhe County

利用1987-2016年民和基准气候站的冬小麦观测资料和对应的气象观测资料以及县统计局的统计资料,采用数理统计的方法,研究分析气候变化对冬小麦的生长发育和产量形成的影响,以及极端天气气候事件对冬小麦产量的影响。结果发现:近30年,民和地区热量资源增加,冬小麦生育期延长,同时由于降水变化的季节性和空间分布的差异,干旱、冰雹、洪水等气象灾害呈现出增多,霜冻、低温冷害等呈现减少的趋势,冬小麦种植区域面积扩大,农业生产的结构和布局在不断调整以适应气候变化。

Based on the winter wheat observation data and corresponding meteorological observation data from the Minhe base climate station from 1987 to 2016 and the statistical data from the county statistical offices,the mathematical statistical method is used. The effects of climate change on the growth,development and yield formation of winter wheat and the effects of extreme weather events on winter wheat yield were studied. The results showed that in the past 30 years,the heat resources in Minhe area increased,and the growing period of winter wheat was prolonged. At the same time,due to the seasonal and spatial distribution difference of precipitation,drought,hail,flood and other meteorological disasters increased,frost,etc. The low temperature chilling damage and so on showed the decreasing trend,the winter wheat planting area expands,the agricultural production structure and the layout are adjusting unceasingly to adapt to the climate change.