朝鲜半岛的危机周期与长治久安

Periodic Crisis and Permanent Peace on the Korean Peninsula

2018年3月以来渐次展开的中朝、朝韩、朝美领导人会晤,为通过对话谈判的方式实现朝鲜半岛无核化和建立半岛永久和平体制,带来了难得的历史性机遇。但这种来自最高层级的积极态势能否持续,依然存在着很大的不确定性。事实上,在过去20多年中,朝鲜半岛也曾出现过南北关系实现突破性改善的积极势头,朝美也曾就无核化、两国关系正常化等21个问题展开密集谈判,并就其中的17个问题达成协议。但由于半岛长期存在的战争状态和冷战状态,使南北双方深陷安全利益的尖锐对立中,这不仅严重制约半岛"核"与"和"问题的根本解决,而且使半岛陷入一轮又一轮的"危机周期"。当前能否抓住新一轮机遇,摆脱"危机周期",实现半岛无核化并建立永久和平体制,关键在于能否建立南北双方共享的共同安全。

The respective summits between China-DPRK,the North-South,and DPRK-USA in the first half of 2018 have brought precious historical opportunities for the realization of denuclearization and the permanent peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.However,there exists a great uncertainty of this positive trend.In fact,there used to be several substantive breakthroughs on North-South relationship in the past 2 decades,North Korea and America had once carried out intensive negotiations on 21 issues such as denuclearization and normalization of DPRK-USA relations as well,and 17 agreements were successfully achieved.Nevertheless,due to Cold War and the long-term oppositional standpoints between the North and South,there is a great confrontation between the North and South on security issues,which not only fundamentally obstructs the solving of denuclearization and peace regime establishment but also puts the peninsula in crises periodically.The key point to get rid of such periodic crisis and to realize denuclearization and permanent peace lies in the foundation of common security shared by the North and the South.