城市暴雨强度公式研究进展与述评

A review on recent advances of urban rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationships

能够客观反映城市降雨特征与规律的暴雨强度公式是城市排水防涝基础设施建设、海绵城市建设过程中相关工程规划、设计的重要前提。简述了暴雨强度公式推求的过程,从暴雨强度公式型式、暴雨资料选样方法、频率曲线选择、频率曲线参数估计以及暴雨强度公式的参数求解等方面,系统梳理了国内外发展现状,深入分析、归纳了各种方法的优缺点,对暴雨强度公式编制过程中存在的两步最优与直接拟合、公式拟合的"异参同效"、公式及参数合理性分析以及编制长历时暴雨强度公式等问题进行深入剖析,认为暴雨强度公式还需在全要素误差分析、成果合理性检验、降雨空间分布、气候变化对城市未来降雨的影响等方面进行深入研究。

Urban rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF)relationships,capable of reflecting urban rainfall characteristics,are an important premise for the planning and design of the infrastructure and sponge city development. The paper briefly described the derivation process of IDF relationships and reviewed recent advances in several aspects including the form of IDF relationships,sampling methods of rainfall data,selection of frequency curves,parameter estimation of distribution functions,and parameter determination of IDF relationships.We analyzed and summarized advantages and disadvantages of the methods reviewed,and pointed out issues associated with two-step optimization and one-step optimization during the IDF relationship establishment,the phenomenon of equifinality in parameter fitting,the rationality analysis of equations and parameters,and the establishment of long-duration IDF relationships.In conclusion,we emphasized that further research is needed in the comprehensive error analysis,rationality analysis, spatial rainfall distribution,and influences of climate change on future rainfall.