面板堆石坝运行期沉降值时空预测模型研究

Spatiotemporal Prediction Model for Settlement Value of Face Rockfill Dam During Operation Period

针对面板堆石坝沉降测点空间分布不均的问题,通过引入测点的空间坐标及时间变量,以坝顶及堆石体内部与外部测点的沉降实测资料为依托,根据测点坐标因子与实测沉降值建立的函数关系,推导出面板堆石坝运行期沉降位移的时空预测模型的一般表达式.结合预留测点的实测资料,对其预测值与实测值进行比较分析,验证了时空预测模型的适用性及优越性.对于研究面板堆石坝沉降值的时空分布规律,确定未知点处沉降值提供方便,定量分析大坝的沉降观测资料提供了方法,有效地确保大坝安全运行,对工程具有实际指导意义和推广价值.

In view of the uneven spatial distribution of settlement points in concrete face rockfill dams,the spatial coordinates and time variables of the measuring points are introduced;and the settlement measured data of the dam's internal and external measuring points are used as background.And then according to the coordinates factors and measured settlements of measuring points,the functional relationship between the coordinate factors and the settlement measured value is established.The general expression of the spatiotemporal prediction model for settlement displacement of the face rockfill dam during operation is derived.Combining with the measured data of reserved measuring points,the applicability of the spatiotemporal prediction model is verified by comparison between the predicted values and the measured values,so as to provide a way to study the spatiotemporal distribution of settlements of face rockfill dam.It is convenient to determine the settlement value at unknown points,including quantitative analysis of the settlement observation data of the dam and to ensure the safe operation of the dam effectively.The research results have practical guiding significance and promotional value for engineering.