社会稳定风险评估性质考辨

Debate on the Nature of Social Stability Risk Assessment

社会稳定风险评估(简称"稳评")是近年兴起的一项重要社会管理创新举措,但对其性质的认识长期存在重大误区。"稳评"首先是社会风险管理中的一个重要环节,其次才是行政决策的一项前置性程序;其评估的对象是一种建构性风险而非技术性风险;在行政决策中,"稳评"是一种民主机制而非科学机制。从"稳评"的本质属性出发重构其制度,应当将其与决策事项的后续风险管理密切结合起来,主要以参与方法而非分析方法开展评估,主要以风险点的定级、排序及与之配套的风险干预措施来体现评估结果,应当取消"稳评"结果的"一票否决"效力,代之以弹性的效力机制。

The social stability risk assessment(SSRA) is an important innovation measure of social management that has arisen in recent years. But there is a serious misunderstanding about its nature for a long time. SSRA is firstly an important part of social risk management, and secondly a preposition procedure of administrative decisionmaking. The object of SSRA is a kind of construction risk rather than technical risk. In administrative decisionmaking, SSRA is a democratic device rather than a scientific device. Starting from the essential attribute of SSRA to reconstructing its system, it shall be closely combined with the subsequent risk management of the decision-making, mostly using participation method rather than analysis method to carry out the assessment, mainly showing the evaluation results as risk grading, sorting and related risk intervention measures. In addition,an elastic effectiveness mechanism should replace the "one ticket veto" effectiveness of SSRA.