终端区管制系统风险因素分析的DEMATEL-ISM模型

DEMATEL-ISM model for analysis of risk factors in terminal area control system

为提高空管系统安全管理水平,提出基于过程的故障模式及影响分析(FMEA)方法,识别终端区管制系统潜在的风险因素;构建DEMATEL—ISM模型,运用决策实验室分析(DEMATEL)模型计算各风险因素的影响度和被影响度,确定要素的因果属性和中心度排序,运用解释结构模型(ISM)构建系统风险递阶结构,表征管制系统中各风险因素的致因属性和层次关系;并以某终端区管制系统为例,验证DEMATEL—ISM模型的有效性。结果表明:DEMATEL—ISM模型可将所论系统的风险因素按致因属性分为3个类别,即6个直接致因、10个过渡致因和3个本质致因;递阶结构可有效表征终端区管制系统风险的内在关联,实现系统风险分析。

To improve the safety management level of the air traffic control system,a process-based FMEA method was worked out for identifying the potential risk factors in the terminal area control system.A DEMATEL-ISM model was built,and the affecting degree and affected degree of each risk factor were calculate by using the decision making trial and evaluation laboratory( DEMATEL) model. The causal attribute and centrality order were determined. The ISM was used for constructing the system risk hierarchical structure presenting the attributes of causes of and hierarchical relationships between the various risk factors in the regulatory system. A terminal area control system was taken as an example to verify the effectiveness of the DEMATEL-ISM model. According to the results,the DEMATEL-ISM model can be used to classify the causal properties of risk factors into three categories in the system,respectively,six direct causes,ten transition causes and three essential causes. In addition,the constructed hierarchical structure can be used to effectively characterize the correlations between the risks in the terminal area control system,complete system analysis and provide a decision-making basis for the system ’ s risk management.