基于改进层次分析法的四川省生态承载力评价

Evaluation of Ecological Carrying Capacity of Sichuan Province Based on Improved Analytic Hierarchy Process

构建四川省生态承载力综合评价指标体系,利用改进层次分析法对评价指标进行赋权,对四川省2005—2016年生态承载力指数进行计算并分析其变化趋势,从生态弹性力、承载媒体的支撑力和承载对象的压力三个方面探讨了四川省生态承载力变化的原因。结果表明:在研究时段内,四川省生态承载力指数逐渐增加,生态系统的承载能力不断提高;生态弹性力指数呈上升趋势,但稳定性较差;承载媒体的支撑力在2010年以后有加速上升的趋势;承载对象的压力指数有增大趋势,表明压力有所缓解。通过对指标层的分析得出,水资源调控不足、环境污染是制约四川省生态承载力提高及稳定的重要因素。该研究结果可为四川省生态文明建设及经济的可持续发展提供参考。

The comprehensive evaluation index system of ecological carrying capacity in Sichuan Province was constructed in this paper. After determining the weight of each index by the method of improved analytic hierarchy process,the ecological carrying capacity index of Sichuan Province was calculated from 2005 to 2016,and the trend was analyzed. The causes which resulted in the change trend of the ecological carrying capacity was discussed from the perspective of ecosystem resilience,the support force of carrying media and the pressure of bearing objects. The results showed that the ecological carrying capacity index of Sichuan Province increased gradually during the study period,indicating that the carrying capacity of the ecosystem continued increasing. The ecosystem resilience index had waved strongly in the process in spite of a large rising trend,which may suggest that the stability of the ecological system had obvious frail characteristics. The support index of the carrying media increased gradually,indicating that the carrying capacity of the ecosystem was higher than that of before,and there was an accelerated upward trend after 2010. The pressure index of the bearing objects showed an overall upward trend,revealing that the pressure decreased gradually. Lacking water resources regulation and environmental pollution were still important factors that restricted the improvement and stability of ecological carrying capacity in Sichuan Province. The results of this study were expected to provide a reference for the sustainable economic development and ecological civilization construction in Sichuan Province.