最优货币区理论发展时期划分及启示

The Different Periods of the Optimum Currency Area Theory and Its Inspirations

从时间维度把最优货币区理论划分为孕育期、创立期、发展期、沉寂期、高峰期、反思与实践并行期等6个时期,并对每个时期最优货币区理论的主要观点和标准等进行了提炼。最优货币区理论对我们的启示主要体现在三大方面:第一,当前在大中华区不宜进行货币统一,而选择人民币作为锚货币在大中华区内实行固定汇率更为现实;第二,要关注大中华区政治融合、要素流动、财政及货币政策一体化的问题;第三,持续关注世界各地货币区问题。

This article divides the Optimum Currency Area Theory into 6 periods according to time,including incubation period,originating period,developing period,silence period,peak period,rethinking and practice period.Based on the main opinions and standards of the theory,it gives at least 3 inspirations are as follows,firstly,it is not proper at present for the Great China Area to adopt common currency,and a more realistic way is to choose Renminbi as anchor currency and adopt fixed exchange rates within the area;secondly,the Great China Area shall pay attention to issues of political flux,factors flow,the integrated financial and monetary policies;thirdly,more attention should be paid to the currency areas all over the world.