流失海外少数民族历史档案追索中的风险识别

Risk identification in the process of retrieving the overseas historical archives of the ethnic minorities of China

流失海外少数民族历史档案的追索是一个需要应对各种显性或隐性风险的过程,有效的风险识别对于确保追索目标的达成至关重要。风险识别包括一般识别与具体识别两个层面。前者指,要明确流失海外少数民族历史档案追索中的风险,通常包括,档案占有国的政治和政策风险、法律风险、文化风险、追索主体行动中的风险等多种类别,以及这些风险普遍具有客观性和多源性、不确定性和伴生性、可预测性与可规避性等特征。后者指,对某一准备展开的具体追索行动,要了解其风险识别,主要包括筛查、监测和评判等多个环节,并根据需要,有选择地组合运用德尔菲法、分段识别法、风险树识别法、情境分析法、蒙特卡罗法等风险识别方法,以确保对海外追索行动风险最大限度的识别。

The retrieval of the overseas historical archives of the ethnic minorities of China is a process that needs to deal with various explicit or implicit risks. Effective risk identification is essential to ensure the realization of the retrieval goal. Risk identification includes two levels: general identification and specific identification. The former refers to the risks involved in such retrieval,usually including the target countries’ political and policy risks,legal risks,cultural risks and risks in the process of retrieval,and these risks all have the characteristics of objectivity and multi-sources,uncertainty and concomitance,predictability and avoidance. The latter means that for a future specific retrieval action,it is necessary to understand the key links involved such as screening,monitoring and evaluation,and make a proper choice of the Delphi method,the segment identification method,the risk tree identification method,the situational analysis method,the Monte Carlo method and other methods to ensure the most proper risk identification for such overseas retrieval.