银行业和券商业市盈率影响因素比较分析

Comparison of Price--to--Earning Ratios Between China's Listed Banks and Security Companies

市盈率是投资估价的重要依据.同为金融行业,我国上市银行和券商的市盈率呈现显著不同.本文研究宏观经济变量对两者市盈率的影响.利用市场公开数据进行实证分析发现:银行业月平均市盈率与我国财政收入累计值呈负相关、与我国财政支出累计值呈正相关;券商业月平均市盈率与狭义货币供应同比增长率呈负相关.

Price--to--earning (P/E)ratio is an important basis for investment valuation.It is observed that the P/E ratios of China's listed banks and security companies are significantly different,though they are both financial enterprises.This paper studies the impact of macroeconomic variables on P/E ratios.Empirical analysis with the market open data shows that the monthly average P/E ratio of the listed banking industry is negatively correlated with China's accumulated value of fiscal revenue and positively correlated with China's accumulated value of fiscal expenditure,while the monthly average P/E ratio of the listed security companies is negatively correlated with the supply growth rate of narrow money.