新常态下潜在产出测算的回顾、反思与展望

Review, Reflection and Outlook on Potential Output Calculation Under New Normal

产出缺口是判断经济形势,制定宏观政策的重要依据。文章系统梳理了国内外研究动态,并从供给和需求结合的视角对潜在产出赋予"可持续性"的内涵。新常态下,应将"货币中性"纳入对中国潜在产出测算的考量,引入信贷缺口、房地产价格缺口等指标,重视微观主体行为决策特征演变对经济内在驱动机制的影响,进而建立基于劳动力市场、产品市场和金融市场的一般均衡模型,提高潜在产出估计的准确性和稳健性。

Output gap is an important basis used to judge economic situation and formulate macro policy. This paper systematically reviews the research trends at home and abroad, and from the perspective of the combination of supply and demand to endow the potential output with connotation of"sustainability". Under the new economic normal,"monetary neutrality"should be taken into account in the estimation of China's potential output. Credit gap, real estate price gap and other indicators should also be brought in. Meanwhile, great importance should be attached to the influence of the evolution of decision-making characteristics of micro-subject behavior on the internal driving mechanism of economy. And then the paper constructs a general equilibrium model based on labor market, product market and financial market to enhance the accuracy and robustness of potential output estimation.