我国汽车尾气减排率测算与跨区域分解

Measurement and Cross-regional Decomposition of Emission Reduction Rate of Automobile Exhaust in China

在利用python软件爬取2010—2015年我国省级汽车注册数据并对我国各个省份的汽车尾气排放量进行测算的基础上,文章构建了跨区域汽车尾气排放的Nordhaus模型对2016—2020年我国跨区域汽车尾气减排率下降速度进行了测算。研究发现:(1)东部地区和西部地区的汽车尾气减排率下降速度的差距较大;(2)汽车尾气碳减排责任总体表现出东部沿海、中部地区的减排责任较大,而西部、北部地区的责任偏小的规律;(3)从地区对比来看,中部地区应分摊的汽车尾气碳减排总量最多,占到了全国总量的25%左右;其次是北部沿海地区,占到了全国的15%以上;而京津冀地区分摊的最少,占全国的5%左右。

This paper uses the python software to capture the provincial automobile registration data of China from 2010 to2015 and calculate the automobile exhaust emissions of various provinces in China, and then establishes a Nordhaus model of cross-regional automobile exhaust emission reduction to measure the rate of decline of cross-regional automobile exhaust emission reduction rate in China from 2016 to 2020. The research finds that 1) there is a big gap between the rate of reduction of automobile exhaust emission in eastern and western regions;2) on the whole, the responsibility of carbon emission reduction of automobile exhaust gas shows the law that the eastern coastal region and the central region have greater responsibility for emission reduction, while the western region and the northern region have smaller responsibility;3) in terms of regional comparison, the central region should share the largest amount of carbon emission reduction of automobile exhaust, accounting for about 25% of the country's total, followed by the northern coastal areas, accounting for more than 15% of total, while Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has the fewest apportionment, accounting for about 5% of the country's total.