中国碳排放交易市场的覆盖范围与行业选择——基于多目标优化的方法

The Coverage and Sector Selection of China's Carbon Trading Market:Based on Multi-Objective Optimization Approach

如何确定覆盖范围与行业选择是建设碳交易市场的关键问题,覆盖范围与行业选择同时影响交易市场的活跃性、减排成本及减排效果。在非参数的方向性距离函数方法测算出我国40个工业行业的二氧化碳减排成本基础上,通过多目标优化的方法仿真出我国碳交易市场的覆盖范围应占我国二氧化碳总排放量的45%～50%,即约50亿吨可达到市场活跃性、减排成本与减排效果三目标的最佳平衡点。主要的覆盖行业分别为电力、热力生产和供应业,石油加工、炼焦和核燃料加工业,黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业,非金属矿物制品业,化学原料和化学制品制造业,有色金属冶炼和压延加工业,造纸和纸制品业,农副食品加工业以及食品制造业。该方法可为国家或地方政府优化碳交易市场纳入行业与企业提供方法学的参考。

How to determine the coverage and industry selection is a key issue in building a carbon trading market.The coverage and industry selection will affect the activity of the trading on the cost of emission reduction and the effect of emission reduction.In this paper,the non-parametric directional distance function is used to calculate the CO2 reduction cost of 40 industrial sectors in China.Then we used a multi-objective optimization method to estimate the coverage and sector selection of China's carbon market.When the coverage accounts for 45%~50% of China's total CO2 emissions,or about 5 billion tons,the result is the best.The sectors selected include electricity,heat production and supply,oil processing,coking and nuclear fuel processing,ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing,non-metallic mineral products,chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing industry,non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing,paper and paper products,agro-food processing and food manufacturing.At the same time,the method could be used as a reference for the national or local governments to optimize the carbon trading market.