中国民用天然气价格规制的公共福利效应与阶梯定价优化情景分析

Public Welfare Effect of Price Regulation on Chinese Resident Gas and Scenario Analysis of Increasing Block Tariff Optimization

结合当前天然气市场化改革背景,运用动态面板模型,分析过去十余年中国天然气市场价格规制对公共福利的影响,并对当前居民用气阶梯定价下的不同情景进行模拟,对比不同定价政策下公共福利的变化。得出以下主要结论:价格规制对公共福利指标并没有显示一致的正向作用,政府实施的天然气市场低气价政策没有显著提高居民用户的公共福利水平;城市化、天然气管网的建设有助于提升居民公共福利水平;当前居民用气阶梯定价方式一定程度上减少了居民用户天然气的浪费,但相比于国家发改委制定的阶梯定价方案,存在更兼顾公共福利与市场效率的阶梯定价结构。

Combined with the current natural gas market reform background,this paper uses the dynamic panel model to analyze the impact of China's natural gas market price regulation on public welfare over the past ten years,and compared different pricing policies and changes in public welfare by analyzing the different scenarios under the current residential gas ladder pricing.The main conclusions are as follows:Price regulation does not show a consistent positive effect on public welfare indicators.The government's natural gas market low gas price policy has not significantly improved the public welfare level of residents.The construction of urbanization and natural gas pipeline networks help to improve the public welfare level of residents.The current residential gas pricing method has reduced the waste of natural gas for residents.However,compared with the ladder pricing plan formulated by the National Development and Reform Commission,there is still room to propose a ladder pricing structure that takes into account public welfare and market efficiency.