城投债发行规模对经济增长的影响研究

Research on the impact of local government debt on local economic growth——Analysis based on the perspective of urban construction investment bonds

近年来,地方政府债务对地方经济的影响引发了越来越多的关注和重视。本文主要分析城投债规模对地方经济增长的影响作用,选取2008-2016年全国30个省份共4077只城投债发行数据为样本。研究结果显示:从整体来看,城投债规模将会显著推动地方经济发展。但是,当城投债规模超过某个阈值时,会对地方经济增长造成负向影响。城投债发行规模与政府作用力的交互作用在城投债规模与地方经济呈正相关时起抑制作用,在城投债规模与地方经济呈负相关时起促进作用。

In recent years, the impact of the rapid expansion of local government debt on the local economy has attracted more and more attention. In view of the lack of transparency of local government debt information in China, the impact of local government debt on local economic growth is judged by analyzing the scale of urbanconstruction investment bonds. This paper selects 4077 urban construction investment bonds issuance data of 30 provinces in 2008-2016 years as samples. The results show that, on the whole, the scale of urban construction investment bonds willsignificantly promote the development of local economy. However, when the scale of urban construction investment bonds exceeds a certain threshold, it will have a negative impact on local economic growth. The interaction between the issuance scale of urban construction investment bonds and the government’s influence inhibits when the scale of urban construction investment bonds is positively correlated with the local economy, and promotes when the scale of urban construction investment bonds isnegatively correlated with the local economy.