电力投资规模对经济发展的门槛效应研究——基于京津冀和长三角地区数据

Threshold effect of power investment scale on economic development——Based on data from Jing-Jin-Ji and Yangtze River Delta

本文基于2000-2016年京津冀地区和长三角地区组成的面板数据,运用面板门槛回归模型研究不同经济发展水平下电力投资对经济增长的影响差异,并探讨了城市化、工业化、科技投入水平和贸易开放水平对经济的作用关系。研究的主要结论如下:(1)电力投资与经济增长之间存在显著的门槛效应,且在京津冀地区和长三角地区均为双门槛;(2)无论是京津冀地区还是长三角地区,电力投资与经济增长之间均呈现"倒U"型曲线关系,随着区域经济发展水平的提高,电力投资对经济增长的促进作用先增强后减弱。

Based on the panel data of Jing-Jin-Ji region and Yangtze River Delta region from 2000 to 2016, this paper uses panel threshold regression model to study the impact of power investment on economic growth at different levels of economic development, and discusses the relationship between urbanization, industrialization, science and technology input and trade openness. The results show that:(1)There is a significant threshold effect between electric power investment and economic growth, and it is double threshold in Jing-Jin-Ji region and Yangtze River Delta region.(2)Whether in Jing-Jin-Ji region or Yangtze River Delta region, the relationship between electric power investment and economic growth presents an inverted U-shaped curve. With the improvement of regional economic development level, the role of electric power investment in promoting economic growth is first strengthened and then weakened.(3)Urbanization, investment in science and technology and the level of foreign trade have always been positively correlated with the growth of regional economy, while the increase in the proportion of industrial added value has relatively weakened economic growth.