中国与“一带一路”沿线国家粮食贸易演变趋势及其虚拟耕地资源流量估算

The Variation Trend of Grain Trade and Estimation on the Virtual Arable Land Resource Flows between China and the Countries along the Belt and Road

中国与"一带一路"沿线国家共同开展互利共赢的更大范围、更高水平、更深层次农业合作,特别是加强与"一带一路"沿线主要粮食出口国经贸关系,对中国更好地充实耕地资源占有量和保障国家粮食安全战略实施有重要现实意义。以稻米、小麦、玉米和大豆为例,分析了1995—2016年中国与"一带一路"沿线国家粮食贸易演变趋势,并估算了双方粮食贸易的虚拟耕地资源流量。结果表明:中国与"一带一路"沿线国家粮食贸易量持续波动变化,2008年以来中国一直处于净进口地位且净进口量不断增长,2013年"一带一路"倡议提出以来增速更快且中国主要出口稻米、主要进口稻米和玉米;"一带一路"倡议提出前后的2008—2012年和2013—2016年,中国通过粮食贸易从"一带一路"沿线国家分别累计净进口虚拟耕地83.60万公顷和403.53万公顷,其中通过稻米贸易分别累计净进口虚拟耕地73.84万公顷和239.74万公顷。

China should carry out a broader,higher-standard and deeper agricultural cooperation with countries along the"One Belt and One Road"(OBOR)in a mutual-beneficial way.To reinforce the economic and trade relationship with the main grain exporting countries along the OBOR is of great importance for China to better enrich the amount of arable land resource and safeguard the implementation of national food security strategy.Taking rice,wheat,maize and soybean as example,this paper analyzes the variation trend of grain trade between China and countries along the OBOR(1995-2016),and estimates the virtual arable land resource flows.The results indicate that:(1)The amount of grain trade between China and countries along the OBOR fluctuates continuously,and China has always been a net-importer,and the net-imports have kept growing since 2008 and even quicker since 2013 when the OBOR Initiative was put forward;(2)Since the OBOR Initiative was put forward,China mainly exports rice to countries along the OBOR,and from which mainly imports rice and maize;(3)China's accumulated net-imports of virtual arable land resource by grain trade with countries along the OBOR is 0.836 0 million hm^2(2008-2012)and 4.035 3 million hm^2(2013-2016),and the accumulated net-imports of virtual arable land resource by rice trade is0.738 4 million hm^2 and 2.397 4 million hm^2 respectively.