互补替代下苹果脆弱性影响因素空间计量分析

Spatial Econometric Analysis of the Influence Factors of Apple Vulnerability Under Complementarity and Substitution

为了测量互补和替代指标对苹果脆弱性的影响,选择陕西苹果主产县2015年的截面数据,采用逐步回归的方法识别资本指标之间的互补和替代关系,然后用空间滞后模型分析互补和替代指标对苹果脆弱性的影响。结果表明:在空间相关性的约束下,邻近县的苹果脆弱性正向影响目标县的脆弱性;互补指标中的苹果有效灌溉面积、农村人均可支配收入和人均粮食产量对脆弱性产生正向影响,农村耐用消费品指数负向影响脆弱性;替代指标没有对脆弱性产生影响。在制定应对气候变化的适应政策时,不仅要考虑资本间的互补和替代关系,而且要考虑空间相关性;互补的指标不一定会降低脆弱性,在制定应对气候变化的适应政策时不能盲目增加互补的生计资本去降低脆弱性,要根据资本对脆弱性的作用大小适宜地增加生计资本。

In order to measure the impact of complementary and substitution indicators on the vulnerability of apple,the cross-sectional data of the main apple producing counties in Shaanxi Province in 2015 was selected,and a stepwise regression method to identify the complementarity and substitution relationship between capital indicators was used,and then the spatial lag model was used to analyze effects of complementary and substitution indicators on apple vulnerability.The results showed that under the constraint of spatial correlation,the vulnerability of apple in the neighboring county positively affected the vulnerability of the target county;the effective apple irrigated area,per capita disposable income,and per capita food production in the complementary indicators had a positive impact on vulnerability,and the rural durable consumer goods index had a negative impact on vulnerability;substitution indicators did not affect vulnerability.When formulating adaptation policies to address climate change,must not only consider the complementarity and substitution relationship between capitals,but also consider the spatial correlation;complementary indicators do not necessarily reduce vulnerability and can not be formulated when formulating adaptation policies to address climate change.Blindly increasing complementary livelihood capital to reduce vulnerability should appropriately increase livelihood capital based on the effect of capital on vulnerability.