云南省县域经济发展与农村减贫的空间耦合协调分析

Spatial Coupling Coordination Analysis of County Economic Development and Rural Poverty Reduction in Yunnan

运用层次分析法、耦合协调模型、Lorenz曲线等方法对2010年和2015年云南县域经济发展与农村减贫的耦合协调进行分析,并探讨其形成机制。结果表明:(1)2010年至2015年云南县域经济快速发展,但呈现低水平的不均衡格局,经济发展的极化现象显著。(2)研究期内,云南农村贫困发生率下降明显,但不均衡空间格局依旧显著,形成了以经济发展极为中心的低值区和以乌蒙山区深山区、滇西边境地区南北两侧为中心的高值区。(3)由于经济发展水平与农村贫困发生率呈现负相关关系,2010年和2015年云南县域经济发展与农村减贫呈现出轻度失调的特征,并且2015年两者的耦合协调度低于2010年;同期经济发展年均增速与农村贫困年均减速以濒临失调为主,主要是由于低层次需求下两者呈现负相关关系,并且贫困人口分布的孤岛效应使得经济发展的减贫效应减弱。在推进精准扶贫政策落实中,必须在经济发展的基础上从多方入手强化措施的精准性,从而确保2020年减贫目标的实现,为乡村振兴和全面建成小康社会奠定坚实的基础。

This study takes Yunnan as an example to analyze the coupling coordination relationship between economic development and rural poverty reduction at county-level from 2010 to 2015 and investigates its forming mechanism via analytic hierarchy process,coupling coordination model and Lorenz Curves. Results indicate that the county-level economy in Yunnan had been developing rapidly from 2010 to 2015 and showed a low-level imbalance pattern with a remarkable polarization. During the study period,the incidence of poverty in rural areas of Yunnan declines dramatically but the imbalanced spatial pattern remains significant. There form a low-value area centering around the economic development pole and high-value areas centering around the remote mountain areas of Wumeng Mountain as well as the northern and southern border areas in western Yunnan. Due to the negative correlation between the economic development and the incidence of rural poverty,the relationships between county-level economic development and rural poverty reduction in2010 and 2015 all showed a slight imbalance,and the coupling coordination status in 2015 was lower than that in 2010. The concurrent average annual growth rate of economic development and the annual slowdown of the incidence of rural poverty are on the brink of imbalance. This is mainly because the correlation between those two are negative under low-level demand combined with the islanding effect of the distribution of the poor,which reduces the poverty reduction effect. In the process of promoting the implementation of the targeted poverty alleviation policy,the accuracy of policies should be strengthened from many aspects on the basis of economic development,so as to realize the goal of poverty alleviation in 2020 as well as to provide a good foundation for the rural vitalization and a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way.