市场可达性、人口流动与空间分化

Market Access,Migration and Spatial Differentiation

本文以中国高铁作为拟自然实验,研究了通勤成本减少对人口流动及空间分化的影响。研究显示,城市开通高铁会增加2.18%的常住人口,促进沿线城市的人口集聚;另一方面,高铁也促进了人口自西向东、自北向南的流动。进一步分析发现,在经济相对发达的东部地区,高铁增加了中小城市的人口流入,而对区域中心城市的作用削弱。但是在经济相对欠发达的中部地区,高铁却减缓了中小城市的集聚,进一步强化了大城市的作用。本文认为,可达性及市场联系程度的改变引起了空间分化,并从市场可达性角度对这些结果进行了验证。

This paper takes China ’s High-Speed Railways( CRH) as a quasi-natural experiment,and analyzes the effect of commuting cost reduction on migration and spatial differentiation.Our results show CRH connection increases city-wide population growth for 2.18%which means agglomeration in connected cities and leads to migration from west China to east China and from north China to south China. From further study,we find that CRH connection increases inflow of population for small cities in developed east region and reduces the role of regional central cities. However, CRH connection reduces development for small cities in underdeveloped middle region and strengthens the role of large cities. We hold that those changes in cities’ accessibility and extent of market connection lead to spatial differentiation,and we test above results from the perspective of market access.