中国贫困指数的测算与动态分解——基于多维贫困视角

Calculation and Dynamic Decomposition of Poverty Index in China: Perspective of Multidimensional Poverty

利用CHNS1999—2010年调查数据,采取A-F多维贫困测度方法,对中国多维贫困状况进行实证分析,并对多维贫困指数进行动态分解。实证结果表明:第一,近年来,除就业维度和教育维度贫困发生率有所上升之外,其他维度贫困发生率均出现不同程度的下降,其中医疗保险和收入维度最为明显。第二,多维贫困在1999—2003年间有所恶化,此时返贫人口比重高于脱贫人口比重,2003—2010年间有所改善,此时脱贫人口比重高于返贫人口比重。长期贫困人口比重在1999—2010年间出现显著的下降。第三,早期多维贫困状况恶化的主要原因是返贫效应大于脱贫效应,近年来多维贫困状况改善的主要原因是脱贫效应大于返贫效应,而长期贫困效应在其中所起的作用较小。

Based on the survey data from CHNS during 1999-2010,this paper adopts the method of multidimensional poverty measurements to empirically analyze China's multidimensional poverty and to dynamically decompose the multidimensional poverty index. The empirical results are as the follow ings: Firstly,except for the poverty incidences of employment dimension and education dimension,the poverty incidences in other dimensions have decreased to different extents in recent years,and it is the most obvious in medical insurance and income dimension. Secondly,multidimensional poverty w as deteriorated from 1999 to 2003 and the proportion of those returning into poverty w as larger than that out of poverty,it w as improved from 2003 to 2010 and the proportion of those out of poverty became greater than that returning into poverty,and the proportion of those living in chronic poverty declined significantly from 1999 to 2010.Thirdly,multidimensional poverty deteriorated in the early stage mainly ow ing to the effect of returning into poverty is greater than that of relieving from poverty. The main reason for the deterioration of multidimensional poverty in recent years is that the effect of relieving from poverty is greater than that of returning to poverty,and the effect of long-term poverty is less important.