人口集聚、产业集聚与环境污染的时空演化及关联性分析

The temporal and spatial evolution of population & industrial agglomeration and environmental pollution and the relevance analysis

为探究人口和产业集聚对环境污染的不同影响,基于我国2000-2015年30个省区面板数据,利用空间相关性检验和回归分析模型,在描述人口集聚、产业集聚、生产污染和生活污染的时空演化趋势基础上,全面考察了人口集聚和产业集聚对生产和生活污染的不同影响及差异。结果表明,人口和产业快速集聚对生产和生活带来不同的环境污染效应。省域间的生产污染具有明显的空间集聚特点,生活污染空间分布较为随机。虽然人口规模的增大加重生产和生活污染,但人口集聚并没有加剧污染,反而有利于环境的改善。产业集聚加剧了生产污染,对生活污染的影响并不显著。与单纯降低工业比重相比,促进工业内部结构优化更能抑制生产污染。生产污染符合环境库茨涅茨曲线,但经济增长并不能自动解决所有的环境问题,尤其很难解决由生活消费所引致的生活污染问题。最后,提出在注重生产污染治理的同时,强调人口集聚在生活污染治理中的作用机制。

In order to explore the different impacts of population and industrial agglomeration on environmental pollution based on the panel data of 30 provinces regions in China from 2000 to 2015,the spatial correlation test and regression analysis model were used to describe the different pollution impacts of population & industrial agglomeration. The results show that in the accelerating process of urbanization in China,rapid population and industrial agglomeration brought different environmental pollution effects on production and life. There was significant spatial similarity between the production pollution in the province,with obvious spatial aggregation characteristics. The spatial distribution of domestic pollution was more random. Although the increase in population aggravated the production and domestic pollution,population agglomeration did not aggravate the pollution but instead helped to improve the environment. Industrial agglomeration exacerbated the production of pollution,but the impact on domestic pollution was not significant. Compared with the simple reduction of the industrial proportion,the optimization of the internal structure of the industry could further inhibit the production pollution. Production pollution was in line with the environmental Kuznets curve,but economic growth did not automatically solve all environmental problems,and it was particularly difficult to solve the problem of domestic pollution caused by consumption. At the same time,it puts emphasis on the mechanism of population concentration in the treatment of domestic pollution while paying attention to the production pollution control.