原油的商品属性和金融属性——影响原油价格因素解析

Commodity & financial attributes of crude oil——Analysis of factors influencing crude oil prices

影响原油价格波动的因素大致可以归类于商品属性和金融属性,即库存周期和宏观周期。其中,供给主导商品属性,而需求主要受金融属性影响。通过引入波动率指标,证明了油价波动是原油的商品属性和金融属性共同作用的结果。因此,研究原油的商品属性和金融属性,就是要把握原油的库存周期和宏观周期。大部分时间,原油的库存和宏观周期同向变化,商品属性和金融属性共振驱动油价单边走势。而当原油的商品属性和金融属性发生背离时,需要寻找主导油价的核心因素。另外,需要注意油价对库存周期和宏观周期的反作用,以及油价极端变化后的政策托底。

The factors affecting the fluctuation of crude oil price can be roughly divided into commodity and financial attributes,namely inventory cycle time and macro-cycles.Amid them,supply dominates commodity attributes,while demand is mainly affected by financial attributes.By adopting the volatility index,it is proved that oil price fluctuation is the result of the combination of commodity and financial attributes.Therefore,to study the commodity and financial attributes of crude oil is to grasp the inventory cycle time and macro-cycle of crude oil.The stock of crude oil changed in the same direction as macro-cycle,and the resonance of commodity and financial attributes drove the unilateral trend of oil price in the most of time.However,when the commodity and financial attributes of crude oil deviated,it is necessary to find the core factor that dominates the oil price.Besides,we also need to pay attention to the reaction of oil price against inventory and macro-cycles,as well as the policy supports after extreme changes in oil prices.