中东地缘政治形势变化及其对中国石油企业投资的影响

Geopolitical situation in the Middle East and its impact on the investment of China's oil enterprises

中东地区油气资源丰富,但地缘政治形势复杂多变,尤其是在"新月沃土"地带。围绕"新月沃土"的争斗将成为长期潜在的动荡因素,近期出现的伊拉克大选新形势、库尔德闹独立、"伊斯兰国"残余势力威胁,再加上美国退出伊核协议并重启对伊朗制裁,均是围绕这一地带发生的矛盾和纠纷。中东地区的战乱及制裁已对中国石油企业的投资造成一定程度的影响及损失,未来无论哪种原因引爆地缘风险,都会给中国石油企业投资带来较大影响。中国石油企业需要深入分析中东地缘政治形势新变化及趋势,采取适当的投资经营策略,包括加快回收已有项目投资,控制项目集中度;在相对稳定地区寻找新机会;继续扩大在阿联酋的投资经营规模;设法寻求在卡塔尔的投资机会等。

It is rich in oil and gas resources in the Middle East but its geopolitical situation is quite complex and volatile,especially in the Fertile Crescent(also known as the Cradle of Civilization).The fight over the Fertile Crescent will become a potential long-term destabilizing factor.The recent new situation of Iraq’s election,the independence of the Kurds,the threat from the residual forces of the Islamic State,as well as the withdrawal of the United States from the Iranian nuclear agreement and the resumption of sanctions against Iran are all conflicts and disputes for this region.The conflicts and sanctions in the Middle East have caused a certain degree of impact and loss on the investment of Chinese oil companies.No matter what causes the explosion of geopolitical risks in the future,it will have a greater impact on the investment of Chinese oil companies.Chinese oil enterprises need to deeply analyze the new changes and trends of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and adopt appropriate investment and management strategies including accelerating the recovery of investment in existing projects and controlling project concentration,seeking new opportunities in the relative stable areas,continuing to expand the scale of investment and operation in the United Arab Emirates,and seeking investment opportunities in Qatar,etc.