基于层次分析法和模糊综合评价的突发水污染风险等级评估

Risk Grade Assessment of Sudden Water Pollution Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

针对突发水污染事件在发生地点、污染类型和危害程度等方面的不确定性,以科学判定流域突发水污染风险等级、保障流域水安全为目标,开展了突发水污染风险等级评估研究。结合水文响应单元和行政区边界,划分了突发水污染风险评估单元。在综合考虑环境脆弱性、污染源危险性和危险控制能力等因素的基础上,构建了突发水污染风险等级评估指标体系。采用层次分析法和模糊综合评价法评估了突发水污染风险等级。以永定河山区为典型案例,评估其水污染风险等级,发现永定河山区突发水污染高风险区域主要分布在山西大同和河北张家口,合理控制企业生产过程中的污染源,加强巡查是降低突发水污染风险的必要措施。研究成果有利于流域机构和各级水利部门实施管理。

There is uncertainty in occurrence place,type of pollution and the harm degree of the sudden water pollution event.In order to scientifically determine the risk grade of water pollution in the basin and ensure the water safety,sources of pollution were collected and the risk assessment units of the sudden water pollution were divided.The risk assessment was carried out by the analytic hierarchy process and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.Taking the Yongding River as a typical case,the risk grade assessment was carried out.The results show that the sudden water pollution high risk areas were mainly distributed in Datong of Shanxi and Zhangjiakou of Hebei.The reasonable control of pollution sources in production process and strengthening inspections are the necessary measures to reduce the risk of sudden water pollution.The research results are conducive to the implementation of management of river basin institutions and water conservancy departments.