基于贝叶斯评价模型的抽水蓄能电站容量规划

Capacity Planning of Pumped Storage Power Station Based on Bayesian Evaluation Model

将贝叶斯理论应用于抽水蓄能电站容量规划中,从技术、经济和环境角度出发,综合选取等效火电替代系数、调峰容量比、电力不足概率、节煤量和SO2排放量作为评价指标,运用秩比法和信息熵形成的组合权重法来确定各指标的权重,并以各方案中指标的最大值、最小值及两者平均值作为该指标的评级等级标准,应用贝叶斯公式构建贝叶斯评价模型推求出各方案的等级和综合评价值,并将其进行排序获得最优方案。实例应用结果表明,评价结果准确合理,具有可行性。

Bayesian theory was applied to the capacity planning of pumped storage power station.From the perspective of technical,economic and environmental,the alternative coefficient of thermal capacity,peak-regulation proportion,loss of load probability,coal savings and SO2 emissions were comprehensively chosen as the evaluation indexes.The weight of each index was determined by the combination weight method which utilizes the rank ratio method and information entropy.And then the maximum,minimum and the average of the indexes in each scheme were used as the rating standard.Finally,Bayesian formula was used to construct the Bayesian evaluation model to deduce the rank and synthesizing value of each scheme and sort them to obtain the optimal scheme.An example show that Bayesian evaluation results are accurate and reasonable.