考虑资产全寿命周期阶段的电网投资决策方法

Power Grid Investment Decision Method Considering Life Cycle of Assets

针对传统电网资产价值评估方法无法衡量风险价值、不满足现阶段电网资产价值评估的需要,基于全寿命周期管理理论及输配电价改革,将电网资产全寿命周期划分为规划期、建设期、折旧期及折旧后期四个阶段。同时,考虑电网资产寿命周期内各个阶段的成本收益特性,引入实物期权理论方法,构建了针对电网资产价值评估的二叉树实物期权模型,并通过算例分析验证了模型的有效性。

Traditional evaluation methods of power grid asset cannot measure value at risk,and it is unable to meet the needs of current value assessment.Based on life cycle management theory and transmission & distribution price reform,this paper divided the life cycle of power grid assets into four stages:planning stage,construction stage,depreciation stage and post-depreciation stage.At the same time,considering the cost-benefit characteristics of each stage,a binomial tree real option model for power grid assets value evaluation was established by introducing real option theory.Finally,the validity of the model was verified by an example analysis.