网络舆论过程与动态演化:基于计算传播研究的分析

Online Public Opinion Process and Its Dynamics Development:A Computational Approach Ananlysis

互联网和大数据如何影响和改变着舆论研究?本文认为,舆论研究历史上存在两条"河流",一条是以民意调查测验为代表、聚焦特定单一时间点上意见分布的"大众意见"式的舆论研究,另一条则是强调分析舆论发展过程与动态演化的"社会过程"式的舆论研究。囿于理论、方法和数据的局限,舆论研究的传统偏重前者而忽视后者。大数据和计算社会科学的出现为社会过程式舆论研究的发展带来了新的契机,在数据、模型和方法三方面准备了资源。并以具体研究为例,讨论计算传播研究取向如何促进网络舆论过程与动态演化研究的开展。

How is internet and big data influencing and changing public opinion research?This article believes that there exist "two rivers"in the history of public opinion research:One is "mass opinion"approach focusing on the "one-shot"aggregation of responses from individuals;The other is "social process"approach focusing on studying public opinion from a dynamic social process perspective.The"mass opinion"approach is the most common one used by public opinion scholars and the "social process"approach deserves more academic attention.The emergence of big data and computational communication research provide the new opportunities for the development of dynamic and evolutional public opinion process research with new data,model,and methodology.This article reviews three major advances in this area based on analysis of computational studies on public opinion process in SSCI communication journals,and discusses the future of online public opinion process and dynamics research via computational methods.