化解“一带一路”威胁论:国际议程设置分析

Coping with the “Belt and Road Initiative” Threat Theories:An International Agenda-Setting Analysis

"一带一路"倡议成果丰硕,但其动机和预期结果也面临诸多质疑。提升国际议程设置能力是切实化解担忧、不解或误解的有效途径,是回应和有限地缓和曲解或阴谋论的有效手段。"一带一路"倡议可以被理解为针对国际发展失衡问题的"中国方案",其提出、传播和执行的过程便是一个国际议程设置的过程。国际议程设置分析为"一带一路"倡议提供一个新的解释视角,并因此将相对零散的问题、事件、政策和争论纳入一个整体的分析框架中,为"一带一路"从国内到国际、从理念到实践、从构想到制度的发展提供较为系统的解释,为化解"一带一路"威胁论提供了有效的方法。此解释和方法包含国际议程设置的三个相互关联且存在先后顺序的过程:议题形成、议题传播和议题制度化。国际问题的选择和议题的制定决定了可能获得国际共识的程度,有效的国际传播可以更加清晰地阐明动机,获取共识,制度化可以通过建立约束获得更多的信任。

The motives and expectations of the"Belt and Road Initiative"(BRI) face skepticism, although the BRI has made fruitful achievements. Enhancing the capacity of international agenda-setting is an effective way to resolve real concerns, incomprehension or misunderstandings, and to respond and mitigate misinterpretations or conspiracy theories to some degrees. The BRI can be understood as a Chinese proposal aiming at the international issue of imbalanced international development. The processes of proposing, spreading and implementing this proposal, in essence, are processes of setting up an international agenda. This international agenda-setting analysis provides a new explanatory perspective to incorporate numerous problems, activities, policies and debates into an analytical framework, and, consequently, systemically explains the development of the BRI. The explanation contains three interconnected and chronological steps: issue formation, transformation and institutionalization. The choice of international problems and the formulation of proposals determine the degree of possible international consensus. Effective international communication can clarify the motivation and obtain wide consensus. Institutionalization is conducive to gaining more trust by establishing constraints.