双边投资协定促进了中国对外直接投资吗——兼论对中美BIT谈判的启示

Does Bilateral Investment Treaty Promote China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment?:On the Implications for Sino-US BIT Negotiation

当前,双边投资协定(BIT)对中国对外直接投资(OFDI)的影响备受国内外学者及各国政府的关注。文章选取2003～2016年与中国签订BIT的132个国家的宏观经济数据及中国双边投资协定数据,运用倾向得分匹配和双重差分模型进行实证检验,结果发现BIT的签订且生效对中国OFDI具有显著的正向影响,BIT重新修订对中国OFDI具有显著的负向影响; BIT签订和BIT文本质量可能会促进中国OFDI,但未能通过稳健性检验。在此基础上提出:中国一方面要抓紧研究BIT条款设计的新趋势;另一方面,要继续全面深化改革与扩大对外开放,妥善处理中美贸易摩擦,促成中美BIT的签订与生效。

At present,the impact of bilateral investment treaty(BIT)on China’s outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)attracts much attention from the scholars and governments at home and abroad.Based on the macroeconomic data of 132 countries that signed BIT with China and the data of China’s BIT from 2003 to 2016,the paper conducts an empirical analysis with Propensity Score Matching(PSM)and Difference-in-Differences(DID)models.The results show that the signing and entry into force of BIT has a significant positive impact on China’s OFDI but the revision of BIT is significantly and negatively related with China’s OFDI.The signing of BIT and its text quality may promote China’s OFDI but failed to pass the robust test.On this basis,the paper puts forward that on one hand,China should pay close attention to the new trends in the study of BIT ’s clause design.On the other hand,China should take the opportunity of commemorating the 40 th anniversary of reform and opening up to continue to comprehensively deepen reforms and expand opening-up in an all-round way,improve its own institutional environment,properly handle trade war between China and US,and promote the signing and entry into force of Sino-US BIT.