我国房屋市政工程安全生产事故时空格局演变

A Study on Spatial Evolution of Safety Accidents in Housing and Municipal Works

为探究我国房屋市政工程安全生产事故的时空演变规律,以安全生产事故死亡人数为分析对象,采用地理集中指数、泰尔指数,传统与空间马尔柯夫链相结合的方法,来分析安全生产事故死亡人数的区域差异及时空转移特征。研究发现,房屋市政工程安全事故死亡人数的区位分布呈现出由均衡分布向高度聚集"波动式"扩散;安全事故死亡人数总体差异虽没有明显变化,但区域内差异远远大于区域间差异;房屋市政安全事故死亡人数存在不同水平的俱乐部趋同,但趋同性有减弱的趋势;领域环境对安全事故死亡人数的转移存在影响,且具有较明显的空间相关性。

To explore the space-time evolution law of safety accidents in housing and municipal works, the combination method of geographic concentration index,Theil index as well as the tradition and spatial Markov chain is used to make a detailed analysis of the regional disparity and time-space transfer in the death toll of housing and municipal works,taking the number of deaths from accidents in safety production as the analysis object.Findings show that the death of safety accidents in housing and municipal works has developed from diffusion of the balance to the high degree of aggregated "wave type":the mainland's province(or city)of the death of safety accidents tends to be no significant different while the inter-regional differences is greater than the Interval-regional differences.There exists obvious "club convergence"characteristics and the features are more weakening trend.Finally,the regional background can affect the transformation and there is a significant spatial correlation between the regional transfer.