中国森林生态安全动态测度及空间收敛性分析

Dynamic Measurement and Spatial Convergence Analysis of Forest Ecological Security in China

文章运用熵权法、Moran′s I指数及空间收敛性模型对2005—2015年全国及各省(市、自治区)的森林生态安全及空间收敛性进行测度分析。结果表明:全国森林生态安全指数在2005—2009年(2006年除外)及2014—2015年处于0.4～0.6之间(第Ⅲ等级),2010—2013年处于0.6～0.8之间(第Ⅳ等级);大部分省区森林生态安全指数波动上升,且省区间呈现出严重的两极分化现象;各省区森林生态安全存在空间自相关关系,且这种自相关关系总体上呈先加强后减弱的趋势;各省区的森林生态安全存在趋同性和收敛性。

This paper uses entropy weight method,Moran index and spatial convergence model to measure and analyze the forest ecological security and spatial convergence of the whole country and provinces(cities and autonomous regions) from 2005 to2015.The results show that the national forest ecological security index is between 0.4 and 0.6(Level Ⅲ) from 2005 to 2009(except 2006) and from 2014 to 2015,and between 0.6 and 0.8(Level Ⅳ) from 2010 to 2013;the forest ecological security indexes rise fluctuating in most provinces and regions,and there exists serious polarization between provinces and regions;the spatial autocorrelation of forest ecological security exists in all provinces and regions,and this autocorrelation generally shows a trend of weakening after strengthening;there is convergence of forest ecological security in all provinces and regions.