美国对中国经济周期贸易传导机制及其阶段性效应研究

Study on American Trade Transmission Mechanism to China's Economic Cycle and Its Periodic Effects

在开放经济和市场经济条件下,国际经济周期传导成为常态。文章在区分中美两国产业内、外贸易的条件下,控制资本账户,利用MSAR-TVTP与SVAR模型,引入中美产业结构、汇率制度等因素,深入分析美国经济周期波动通过直接与间接的国际贸易渠道对中国经济的阶段性影响。结果表明,金融危机前,美国经济周期波动通过国际贸易渠道对中国经济影响显著,但是之后,其传导效应发生了明显变化。同时,产业内贸易与产业间贸易在传导过程中也发挥着不一样的效果。

Under the conditions of open economy and market economy,the transmission of international economic cycle has become the normalcy.Under the condition of distinguishing China and America’s domestic industry and foreign trade,this paper controls the capital account,introduces the industrial structure of China and the United States,exchange rate system and other factors,and uses MSAR-TVTP and SVAR model to make an in-depth analysis on the periodic impact of American business cycle fluctuations on China’s economy through direct and indirect international trade channels.The results show that before the financial crisis,the American business cycle fluctuation had a significant impact on China’s economy through international trade channels,but after that,its conduction effect changed obviously;at the same time,intra-industry trade and inter-industry trade also play a different role in the transmission process.