云南省2010-2017年淋病时空聚集性分析

Spatio-temporal Clustering Analysis of Gonorrhea in Yunnan 2010-2017

目的分析云南省2010-2017年淋病发病的时空聚集情况,为云南省开展淋病防控工作提供理论依据。方法使用SaTScan^(TM)9. 6软件的Possion模型进行时空扫描,并通过地理信息软件Mapinfo^(TM)15. 0对时空聚集区进行可视化表达。结果时空扫描显示,云南省淋病发病存在明显的时空聚集性。2010-2017年的时空扫描发现1个一类集聚区,2个二类集聚区。逐年扫描发现8个一类集聚区,主要位于云南边境,其中2010-2014年一类集聚区分布无明显变化规律,2015-2016年一类聚集区均位于云南西南边境的瑞丽市、陇川县、盈江县和芒市,2017年一类聚集区在2015-2016年的基础上向相邻的梁河县扩大。44个二类聚集区,分布无明显规律。聚集时间主要集中在每年的4～12月。结论时空扫描探测出了过去几年云南省淋病发病的时空聚集性及变化规律,为云南省开展淋病的防控工作提供了理论依据。

Objective To provide theoretical basis for prevention and control of gonorrhea in Yunnan Province by investigating the spatio-temporal clustering condition of gonorrhea in Yunnan between 2010 and 2017.Methods Possion model of SatscanTM 9.6 software was used for spatio-temporal scanning,and visualization of data on spatio-temporal clustering condition was handled by GIS softwear MapinfoTM 15.0.Results Spatio-temporal analysis revealed obvious Spatio-temporal clustering of gonorrhea incidence in Yunnan.The spatio-temporal scanning of 2010-2017 revealed one first-level cluster area and two second-level cluster areas.A spatio-temporal scan conducted each year from 2010 to 2017 detected 8 first-level cluster areas which were mainly located in Yunnan border.The first-level cluster areas of 2010-2014 did not have obvious changing regularities,while the first-level cluster areas of 2015-2016 were located in the south-west boundary of Yunnan including Ruili,Longchuan,Yingjiang and Mangshi.In 2017,the first-level cluster area spread to neighboring county Lianghe on the basis of 2015-2016.The 44 second-level cluster areas did not have obvious regularities.Clustering time mainly ranged from April to December of each year.Conclusion Spatio-temporal scans have detected the spatio-temporal clustering and changes in the gonorrhea incidence of Yunnan Province in the past few years,which could provide theoretical basis for prevention and control of gonorrhoea in Yunnan.