影子银行、资管业务与货币调控方式转型——基于银行表外理财数据的实证分析

Shadow Banking,Asset Management and Monetary Policy Transformation:Empirical Study Based on the Data of OWM

近年来,我国影子银行体系迅猛发展且结构日趋复杂化,不仅加剧了市场流动性风险和系统性风险,还在一定程度上干扰了货币政策调控。本文分别从货币供给和货币需求两个角度,对银行表外理财与货币政策的关系进行了实证研究。根据金融脱媒理论的回归结果表明,银行表外理财的发展确实提高了货币乘数,加大了中央银行准确控制广义货币供给的难度,货币数量调控的有效性也因而明显下降。同时,影子银行扩张也使金融市场流动性需求上升且更不稳定,尤其是,近年来大量银行理财资金以委外方式通过非银行金融机构加杠杆投资,更是加大了存款类金融机构与非存款类金融机构的信用利差。实证研究还发现,银行表外理财的扩张规模,与存贷款利率(尤其是存款利率)水平与市场利率水平的差异密切相关。从未来趋势看,一方面要通过加强监管和完善宏观审慎评估弥补货币数量调控的局限,另一方面更要加快实现利率并轨,优化货币政策工具体系,推动货币政策从数量型调控为主向价格型调控为主转型。

China’s shadow banking sector develops rapidly and the structures are becoming more and more so-phisticated,which enhance the liquidity and systemic risks and dampen macro policy effectiveness. From mone-tary supply and demand sides respectively,we do empirical analysis on the relationship between banking off-balance sheet wealth management( OWM) and monetary policy. The regressions based on the theory of finan-cial disintermediation shows that the OWM really enlarge the money multiplier,which makes central bank’s con-trol of broad money even more difficult and decreasing the effectiveness of quantity monetary policy. The expan-sion of shadow banking,esp. the increasing OWM outsourcing and leverage through non-banking sectors,ex-aggerates the liquidity demand and enlarges the margin of deposit and non-deposit institutions. The empiricalstudies also show that OWM expansion is closely related with the deposit and loan rates,esp. the lowered de-posit rates. From now on,for one hand,we should enhance financial supervision and macro-prudential policyto offset the defects of the quantity based monetary policy,and for the other hand,it is urgent to pay more at-tention to the price target instead of quantity indicators,liberalize the dual tracks of interest rates,improved themonetary tools and turn the quantity based monetary policy to priced based policy mode.