基于主成分分析的优秀中锋对中国男篮战绩影响的综合评价研究

Comprehensive Evaluation of Excellent Center's Roles for China National Men's Basketball Team's Performance with Principal Component Analysis

基于北京奥运会姚明个人数据和里约奥运会中国男篮对战对手的数据,采用主成分分析法,构建中锋对中国男篮战绩影响的综合评价模型,仿真模拟评估替换姚明上场对中国男篮参赛表现的影响。结果显示,替换"姚明"式的优秀中锋运动员上场,可以减少低水平中锋运动员对球队战绩的影响,但替换易建联上场对球队战绩的有效影响是有限或不利于球队整体实力提升的,呈现出中国男篮的整体实力变化较小,最终不会改变中国男篮在比赛中的胜败关系。篮球是一项团队运动项目,优秀中锋运动员对于球队的整体实力来说,无疑是一份坚实力量,但不能指望一个人改变一支球队,中国男篮在未来的发展进程中不仅需要继续发现和培养优秀中锋,培养其他位置上的优秀球员也同样重要。

Based on Yao Ming’s competition data at Beijing Olympics and at Rio Olympics,roles of basketball centers on the performance of Chinese Men’s National Basketball Team were analyzed through principal component analysis and simulation evaluation.The result showed that,as an excellent center player,centers like Yao Ming could significantly reduce the negative effect of low level center players while Yi Jianlian at the match could only influence the performances of the team in a limited sense or even had a negative effect on the performances.This meant that the overall competitiveness of the Chinese team needed to be promoted and the team needed all the players to be the best ones.Elite centers as well as players at other positions were all important.