中美关系周期变化与东南亚国家的外交选择

The Cyclical Changes of Sino-US Relations and the Diplomatic Choice of Southeast Asian Countries

从新中国成立到奥巴马政府上台之前,中美关系历经1949—1969年、1969—1989年和1989—2009年三个"20年周期",意识形态、地缘政治和经济相互依赖是中美关系这三个周期变化的重要因素。奥巴马政府提出"重返亚太"、"亚太再平衡",特朗普政府提出"美国优先"并掀起贸易战,中美关系再次陷入低谷,权力结构性矛盾使中美从战略竞争走向战略对抗的可能性增大,这表明中美关系实际上已处于2009—2029年第四个20年周期的关键时期。中美关系前三个20年的周期性变化对东南亚国家的外交选择具有十分重要的影响,具体体现在:按照意识形态"选边站";维护地缘安全;实施"大国平衡",推进经贸合作和区域一体化建设。在当前美国对中国采取战略对抗的形势下,东南亚国家坚持不"选边站"的立场会面临极大的挑战,中国需要思考其部分国家在极端情况下是否会重回"选边站"的问题。

From the founding of New China to the Obama administration, Sino-US relations have experienced three "20-year cycles" of 1949-1969, 1969-1989, and 1989-2009. Ideology, geopolitics, and economic interdependence are important factors that lead to cyclical changes in Sino-US relations. The Obama administration proposed "returning to the Asia-Pacific" and "Asia-Pacific rebalancing". The Trump administration proposed "US priority" and set off a trade war. Sino-US relations have fallen into a trough, and the structural contradictions of power have increased the possibility of Sino-US strategic competition to strategic confrontation. This shows that Sino-US relations are actually at a critical period in the fourth 20-year cycle of 2009-2029.The cyclical changes in the first three decades of Sino-US relations have a very important impact on the diplomatic choices of Southeast Asian countries. They are embodied in: "Selecting border stations in accordance with ideology", maintaining geopolitical security, implementing "great power balance" and promoting economic and trade cooperation and regional integration construction. Under the current situation of the US taking strategic confrontation against China, Southeast Asian countries will face great challenges in insisting on the position of not choosing the sides. China needs to consider whether some countries will return to the "taking sides" in extreme cases.